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Post by wh on Apr 13, 2009 18:03:54 GMT -5
Just thinking about next year in the Horizon. Obviously, Butler will be the team to beat. They are being ranked as high as 9th-11th in early pre-season polls. A few of their posters are speculating as to whether they could go undefeated in conference play. I can see where some might think that, considering they have everyone back from a very good team.
That said, I think competition will be fierce across the Horizon next year. Several teams will be significantly improved, including Wright State, Milwaukee, Detroit, Youngstown State and Valpo. Even Green Bay - as many players as they lost - have a very strong recruiting class and will have to be reckoned with. IMO easy wins will be few and far between - even for Butler. I would be very surprised if anyone goes through an 18-game conference with fewer than 3 losses.
I just wondered if anyone has any other thoughts...Maybe fans from other teams would be interested in commenting, as well.
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Post by valpo89 on Apr 13, 2009 18:11:20 GMT -5
I also agree, and could see why Butler fans would think they could go undefeated in the conference. But there's just so many variables out there - not only injuries, but other outside forces that could affect how an indiivdual performs on any given night. And it's just really tough to go undefeated (in men's basketball), even in a conference season. Butler will have a big target on its back, and will get every team's best effort in every conference game. It's a lot of pressure to handle, and they'll still be a relatively young team.
Certainly Butler has to be the favorite, but look for several other teams including VU to make a run at that coveted No. 2 spot.
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Post by dylanrocks on Apr 13, 2009 18:47:14 GMT -5
wh:
What you wrote is exactly what I was thinking as I read the rivals projection of Butler as the No. 11 team in the country. That may be, but I have two words for those who think Butler will go unbeaten in the HL next season: No way.
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Post by vu72 on Apr 13, 2009 21:45:43 GMT -5
This already has a topic with the same name under Valpo Basketball.
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Post by wh on Apr 13, 2009 22:33:57 GMT -5
This already has a topic with the same name under Valpo Basketball. It didn't occur to me to recall a Horizon League topic from 3 weeks ago posted on the Valpo Basketball Forum...  |
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Post by fwalum on Apr 14, 2009 11:01:21 GMT -5
In my opinion it is crazy for Butler to believe that they will go through the 2009-2010 Horizon League schedule undefeated. I thought that many of our perspectives were colored by brown and gold colored glasses, but Butler's forum members must be using indigo blue colored glasses. They just aren't seeing what some of the other league teams are bringing in. I know, they have everybody coming back, but they only gain one player of any true significance next year in Andrew Smith. They had way too many close games in a league that many believe will be more competitive next year. If they are 15-3 in 2009-2010 I will be surprised.
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Post by titlein2011 on Apr 14, 2009 21:59:13 GMT -5
Who knows if Butler will go undefeated, but 18-0 is more likely than 15-3; that is just ridiculous. Butler went 16-2 in 07/08 with a team that was not close to as good as the one coming back.
You are talking about a legitimate Top 10 team in a league that likely will not have another Top 70. 17-1 is probably what I'll be picking, because some randomness ALWAYS pops up.
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Post by fwalum on Apr 14, 2009 23:46:58 GMT -5
Who knows if Butler will go undefeated, but 18-0 is more likely than 15-3; that is just ridiculous. Butler went 16-2 in 07/08 with a team that was not close to as good as the one coming back. You are talking about a legitimate Top 10 team in a league that likely will not have another Top 70. 17-1 is probably what I'll be picking, because some randomness ALWAYS pops up. titlein2011 I think you are proving my point, but I am willing to listen to a rational argument. Why do you see Butler achieving so much improvement while the rest of the league maintains the status quo. Where will all this improvement come from other then the fact that everyone will be one year older? It is not that I don't think that Butler will be very good next year, I just believe that there will be some improvement among the other league teams. I don't think the gap will get larger, I think it will decrease giving you less room for error. |
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Post by titlein2011 on Apr 15, 2009 2:57:43 GMT -5
It really comes to your last sentence. I don't want to upset people, because when you really boil it down, this is sort of the argument that gets people the most upset because it really just deals with basic hope. The gap has been getting larger for a number of years, preceding the time when Valpo was even in the league. Now, it as at the point where the third youngest team in the country (last year) is able to still go 15-3. But, if you believe that the gap is somehow shrinking, that's great, that's what a fan should think. I hope Valpo does very well going forward.
And, I apologize for saying your opinion was ridiculous, above.
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Post by fwalum on Apr 15, 2009 8:22:19 GMT -5
Just thought I would point out that if Butler was the third youngest team in the country then VU must have been the first or second youngest.
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Post by agibson on Apr 15, 2009 8:58:53 GMT -5
Let's see... Pomeroy calculates something like that. I don't know how he defines it, but he has Valpo with 1.26 years of "Experience". The average is 1.66. Valpo is 293rd of 344.
Butler, with 0.67 years of "Experience" is 341st. Of 344 D1 teams.
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Post by dylanrocks on Apr 15, 2009 9:06:37 GMT -5
Look, Butler has an exceptional program and I cheer for the Bulldogs -- just like I do every Horizon League member -- whenever they play out of conference and especially in the postseason. But it's an absolute fallacy that "the gap has been getting larger for a number of years" when you consider that Milwaukee went 13-3 in league play and to the second round of the NCAA Tournament in 2005-06 and 14-2 and to the Sweet 16 the year before. Title's post makes it sound as though Butler has been the league's dominant force from time immemorial.
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Post by rlh on Apr 15, 2009 9:17:36 GMT -5
Wright State beat them in the championship a couple of years back and Cleveland State this year. Yes, Butler is the premier program in the league, but with the amount of close games last year, and the improvement from SEVERAL teams coming up next year (at least on paper) the gap is getting smaller. We experienced this in the Mid-Con at the end of our championship run. Teams find a way of catching up. These things normally go in cycles. Eventhough Butler will continue to be at the top of the conference and fight for titles, i truly believe several teams are getting closer. Not only I am excited about what Valpo is bringing in, with the three transfers, but Detroit will be much much better...it should be a very interesting year next season. Butler may still win the regular season title, but 18-0....I'd be willing to put a wager on that if I was a betting man.
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Post by dylanrocks on Apr 15, 2009 9:24:59 GMT -5
Yes. And unlike 2004-05, when Milwaukee and Green Bay were the only two teams with winning records, we've now had two straight years where four teams won 20 games. It appears to me that Wright State, Milwaukee, Cleveland State, Valpo, Youngstown State, Detroit and possibly even Green Bay will all constitute tough "outs" next year. Of course, Butler will be the favorite, but none of these other teams should be taken lightly.
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Post by fwalum on Apr 15, 2009 10:57:19 GMT -5
Let's see... Pomeroy calculates something like that. I don't know how he defines it, but he has Valpo with 1.26 years of "Experience". The average is 1.66. Valpo is 293rd of 344. Butler, with 0.67 years of "Experience" is 341st. Of 344 D1 teams. Not sure how that was calculated, but if you take the redshirts out of the equation this is how they stack up. Urule Igbavboa Sr. 4 Michael Rogers So. 2 Benjamin Fumey So. 2 De'Andre Haskins Fr. 1 Cameron Witt Fr. 1 Nick Shelton Fr. 1 Andrew Ferry Fr. 1 Howard Little So. 2 Erik Buggs Fr. 1 Logan Jones Fr. 1 Jake Diebler Sr. 4 YEARS EXP 20 Anglin, Alex JR 3 Butcher, Garrett FR 1 Hahn, Zach SO 2 Hayward, Gordon FR 1 Howard, Matt SO 2 Jukes, Avery JR 3 Leiendecker, Grant JR 3 Mack, Shelvin FR 1 Nored, Ronald FR 1 Rodgers, Nick JR 3 Vanzant, Shawn SO 2 Veasley, Willie JR 3 YEARS EXP 25 |
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