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Post by milldew1 on Feb 14, 2011 13:56:21 GMT -5
Now's the time we can actually start paying a little bit of attention to bracket predictions. Of course they're just predictions, but cool nonetheless.
FoxSports.com today has Valpo a 12 seed playing 5 Villanova in Denver.
The kicker? They also have Butler an 11 playing 6 Kentucky in D.C.
Two-bid league with Cleveland State missing out.
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Post by milanmiracle on Feb 14, 2011 14:05:53 GMT -5
I just don't see any team getting an at large bid out of the Horizon. Valpo and Cleveland State haven't beaten anybody of note, and Butler has too many losses. While the bracketbuster won't mean anything to Valpo, it could mean everything to Cleveland State. IF they win that game, and don't lose until the conference championship (or to Butler) they could at least be in consideration for an at large bid. A 26-5 regular season is pretty tough to ignore, even if you don't have a notable win.
I repeat, that Toledo loss will come back to bite Valpo
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Post by rlh on Feb 14, 2011 14:15:22 GMT -5
If we win out, the Toledo loss won't be a catastrophic as some of you think....but then it won't help either....isn't it amazing that the national media keeps putting Butler ahead of Cleveland State and us, even though they are behind us in the conference standings. Reminds me of us being ranked 22nd by SI after the tournament run, and losing almost the entire team. Once you're in, it takes a while to get you out of the national media's thinking, especially since most don't have a clue in hell as to where Valparaiso (or is it ValparEYEso, is.....) The only way to change that is to win.....
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Post by blackpantheruwm on Feb 14, 2011 14:24:59 GMT -5
Butler's non-conference resume, including the Diamond Head championship, will put them ahead of CSU/VU in any scenario.
Record isn't all that matters, it's who you play and how you did against them.
Scheduling national powerhouses to hand you blowouts and a bunch of low-majors and non-D-I's doesn't set you up with a good resume. Play top level MVC, A-10, and mid-level Big Ten/Big East games; they give you the opportunity to win and build the resume.
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Post by valpofan56 on Feb 14, 2011 14:37:51 GMT -5
Butler's non-conference resume, including the Diamond Head championship, will put them ahead of CSU/VU in any scenario. Record isn't all that matters, it's who you play and how you did against them. Scheduling national powerhouses to hand you blowouts and a bunch of low-majors and non-D-I's doesn't set you up with a good resume. Play top level MVC, A-10, and mid-level Big Ten/Big East games; they give you the opportunity to win and build the resume. Unfortunately, teams like those try like hell to avoid playing good mid majors unless they can get a 2 for 1 out of the deal, and even then they sometimes try to get out of it (see: NC State). You have to reach elite mid major status before those teams will touch you in a non-tournament setting. |
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Post by valpofan56 on Feb 14, 2011 14:48:45 GMT -5
Also, how awesome would it be if we were to make the tournament and get a first (and hopefully second round) game in Chicago?
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Post by milanmiracle on Feb 14, 2011 14:51:59 GMT -5
I've got to agree with blackpanther on this one. Valpo doesn't have any good wins, but they do have a horrific loss. I do think the Toledo loss will end up coming back to haunt them in the end. Maybe it's just with seeding, or who they play in the NIT, but it will matter.
I think that YSU loss will come back to bit Butler too, unless of course they win out and lose in the conference championship. It's going to be hard for the NCAA to take a 10 loss team from a mid major conference even if they are the national runner up.
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Post by milldew1 on Feb 14, 2011 15:30:02 GMT -5
Butler's non-conference resume, including the Diamond Head championship, will put them ahead of CSU/VU in any scenario. Record isn't all that matters, it's who you play and how you did against them. Scheduling national powerhouses to hand you blowouts and a bunch of low-majors and non-D-I's doesn't set you up with a good resume. Play top level MVC, A-10, and mid-level Big Ten/Big East games; they give you the opportunity to win and build the resume. Unfortunately, teams like those try like hell to avoid playing good mid majors unless they can get a 2 for 1 out of the deal, and even then they sometimes try to get out of it (see: NC State). You have to reach elite mid major status before those teams will touch you in a non-tournament setting. So is the NCState thing done for good? No chance at getting that backside game? |
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Post by stlvufan on Feb 14, 2011 15:38:20 GMT -5
Unfortunately, teams like those try like hell to avoid playing good mid majors unless they can get a 2 for 1 out of the deal, and even then they sometimes try to get out of it (see: NC State). You have to reach elite mid major status before those teams will touch you in a non-tournament setting. So is the NCState thing done for good? No chance at getting that backside game? Against an ACC perennial bottom-feeder? I'm not sure I'm all that interested in the backside game. I realize it's still the ACC, but it wouldn't be all that impressive a win, especially on our home court (there's no way I'd schedule them at the UC or something like that). |
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chef
Bench Warmer
Posts: 177
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Post by chef on Feb 14, 2011 15:50:23 GMT -5
If we win out, the Toledo loss won't be a catastrophic as some of you think....but then it won't help either....isn't it amazing that the national media keeps putting Butler ahead of Cleveland State and us, even though they are behind us in the conference standings. Reminds me of us being ranked 22nd by SI after the tournament run, and losing almost the entire team. Once you're in, it takes a while to get you out of the national media's thinking, especially since most don't have a clue in hell as to where Valparaiso (or is it ValparEYEso, is.....) The only way to change that is to win..... |
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chef
Bench Warmer
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Post by chef on Feb 14, 2011 15:52:39 GMT -5
history does show the only way for a mid-major to have a real shot at an at-large bid is with quality non-conference wins. Sadly, we don't have any, while Butler has a handful this season. Also, one minor correction, the year SI had Valpo ranked in the preseason was 2000. The only SR on the 1999 team was Zoran Viskovic.
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Post by milanmiracle on Feb 14, 2011 16:39:45 GMT -5
So is the NCState thing done for good? No chance at getting that backside game? Against an ACC perennial bottom-feeder? I'm not sure I'm all that interested in the backside game. I realize it's still the ACC, but it wouldn't be all that impressive a win, especially on our home court (there's no way I'd schedule them at the UC or something like that). I'd take any game vs. any BCS school I could get, preferably against a bottom feeder as that's a chance for a win instead of the usual 30pt blowouts. |
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Post by stlvufan on Feb 14, 2011 17:07:05 GMT -5
Against an ACC perennial bottom-feeder? I'm not sure I'm all that interested in the backside game. I realize it's still the ACC, but it wouldn't be all that impressive a win, especially on our home court (there's no way I'd schedule them at the UC or something like that). I'd take any game vs. any BCS school I could get, preferably against a bottom feeder as that's a chance for a win instead of the usual 30pt blowouts. Well, sure -- if Duke is the only alternative, of course NC State is better. But Duke isn't the only other team in the ACC you could theoretically try to schedule. I'd be more for a middle of the pack team myself. The problem with beating NC State is that you'll get no respect for it, especially if it's a home game for you -- and perhaps rightfully so. Try mentioning our defeat of Washington in the CBI to a PAC-10 fan and the qualifier they'll come back with is a slam dunk (plus the injuries that UW had going into that game). I'm not arguing that it wasn't a legitimate win over a power conference team, it's just that a win over Arizona in 2001 would have had 100 times the value, and the *loss* to Arizona in 2001 *had* significantly more value than our win over UW in 2008. |
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Post by vufan75 on Feb 14, 2011 18:08:55 GMT -5
I've got to agree with blackpanther on this one. Valpo doesn't have any good wins, but they do have a horrific loss. I do think the Toledo loss will end up coming back to haunt them in the end. Maybe it's just with seeding, or who they play in the NIT, but it will matter. I think that YSU loss will come back to bit Butler too, unless of course they win out and lose in the conference championship. It's going to be hard for the NCAA to take a 10 loss team from a mid major conference even if they are the national runner up. Wouldn't Valpo's win over Butler qualify as a "good win"? I know it was against another mid-major, but, it was a win against Butler, who of course has wins this season against BCS schools or other high-majors? Agreed the Toledo loss will be held against Valpo by the tournament selection committee, but, it was pretty early in the regular season. I wonder how much stock if any the selection committee places on a team showing improvement during the course of the year. Having said all that, I do think we need to win the HL tourney to get into the "big dance"...even expanded to 68 teams. |
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Post by CO_VU_Fan on Feb 14, 2011 18:47:52 GMT -5
I've got to agree with blackpanther on this one. Valpo doesn't have any good wins, but they do have a horrific loss. I do think the Toledo loss will end up coming back to haunt them in the end. Maybe it's just with seeding, or who they play in the NIT, but it will matter. I think that YSU loss will come back to bit Butler too, unless of course they win out and lose in the conference championship. It's going to be hard for the NCAA to take a 10 loss team from a mid major conference even if they are the national runner up. Wouldn't Valpo's win over Butler qualify as a "good win"? I know it was against another mid-major, but, it was a win against Butler, who of course has wins this season against BCS schools or other high-majors? Agreed the Toledo loss will be held against Valpo by the tournament selection committee, but, it was pretty early in the regular season. I wonder how much stock if any the selection committee places on a team showing improvement during the course of the year. Having said all that, I do think we need to win the HL tourney to get into the "big dance"...even expanded to 68 teams. Our wins over Butler, Cleveland St., and Oakland are quality wins. We have no double quality wins. Our losses to Ohio and Toledo are double bad losses, and we have another bad loss to Green Bay. This is according to Realtimerpi: realtimerpi.com/rpi_281_Men.html We need Ohio to win a few unexpected games to upgrade to just a bad loss. If Wright St. and UWM both improve a bit more in the rankings (but not at our expense), we could get a few more quality wins. Beating Missouri St. would also give us a quality win. Just win out, baby! |
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