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Post by 78crusader on Feb 11, 2011 8:29:53 GMT -5
...if we win against Wright St, it seems to me we can go into our last two-game road trip with a lot less pressure -- a split would probably be ok for us. (No, I haven't figured out all of the possible tie-breaker scenarios.) But if we lose to Wright State, it seems to me that all of a sudden we need to win both of our road games next week -- which would be a tall order for anyone in this league to accomplish. And...I think Butler is still in this race.
Paul
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Post by rlh on Feb 11, 2011 8:39:36 GMT -5
Because we hold the tie-breakers with Cleveland State we have in essence a two game lead for the first seed. We hold all the tie-breakers as long as we do our job...one more loss wouldn't hurt us much, but two could make it interesting....we hold a two game lead over CSU because we are one game up on them, and hold the tie-breaker because they lost to Butler twice.
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Post by stlvufan on Feb 12, 2011 16:07:54 GMT -5
Because we hold the tie-breakers with Cleveland State we have in essence a two game lead for the first seed. We hold all the tie-breakers as long as we do our job...one more loss wouldn't hurt us much, but two could make it interesting....we hold a two game lead over CSU because we are one game up on them, and hold the tie-breaker because they lost to Butler twice. We don't hold the WSU tiebreaker or the UWM tiebreaker yet, and those teams also only have 5 losses. Both VU and CSU are 1-0 against WSU, and both VU and CSU are 1-0 against UWM. Either one of those could turn against VU and if that team finishes higher than Butler, then the Butler tiebreaker doesn't enter in to it. |
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Post by rlh on Feb 12, 2011 16:47:25 GMT -5
Because we hold the tie-breakers with Cleveland State we have in essence a two game lead for the first seed. We hold all the tie-breakers as long as we do our job...one more loss wouldn't hurt us much, but two could make it interesting....we hold a two game lead over CSU because we are one game up on them, and hold the tie-breaker because they lost to Butler twice. We don't hold the WSU tiebreaker or the UWM tiebreaker yet, and those teams also only have 5 losses. Both VU and CSU are 1-0 against WSU, and both VU and CSU are 1-0 against UWM. Either one of those could turn against VU and if that team finishes higher than Butler, then the Butler tiebreaker doesn't enter in to it. I believe I said if we do our job....indicating that we must win...sorry if I wasn't more specific....as of today...we are the number 1 seed...OK? |
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Post by stlvufan on Feb 12, 2011 17:02:08 GMT -5
We don't hold the WSU tiebreaker or the UWM tiebreaker yet, and those teams also only have 5 losses. Both VU and CSU are 1-0 against WSU, and both VU and CSU are 1-0 against UWM. Either one of those could turn against VU and if that team finishes higher than Butler, then the Butler tiebreaker doesn't enter in to it. I believe I said if we do our job....indicating that we must win...sorry if I wasn't more specific....as of today...we are the number 1 seed...OK? Oh yes, if we do our job and win out, we host. I thought you said that one loss would still leave us in the driver's seat, even if CSU wins out. It depends. If that one loss comes against WSU tonight, then CSU has the WSU tiebreaker. Then we need either UWM or Butler to finish higher than WSU in order to win the tiebreaker with CSU if we both finish 14-4. Otherwise, CSU would host. I guess I'm confused as to why you singled out the Butler tiebreaker, since there's no guarantee they will finish 3rd. |
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Post by stlvufan on Feb 12, 2011 17:18:11 GMT -5
How about this? If our one remaining loss comes against either GB, UIC, or Loyola, then we lock up the #1 seed by virtue of the Butler tiebreaker.
If our one loss is to WSU, then as long as Butler and/or UWM finishes higher than WSU, we're #1.
Likewise, if our one loss is to UWM, then as long as Butler and/or WSU finishes higher than UWM, we're #1.
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Post by rlh on Feb 12, 2011 17:31:52 GMT -5
How about this? If our one remaining loss comes against either GB, UIC, or Loyola, then we lock up the #1 seed by virtue of the Butler tiebreaker. If our one loss is to WSU, then as long as Butler and/or UWM finishes higher than WSU, we're #1. Likewise, if our one loss is to UWM, then as long as Butler and/or WSU finishes higher than UWM, we're #1. Sorry, i was assuming, and still am that Butler will finish 3rd. |
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Post by stlvufan on Feb 12, 2011 18:31:15 GMT -5
How about this? If our one remaining loss comes against either GB, UIC, or Loyola, then we lock up the #1 seed by virtue of the Butler tiebreaker. If our one loss is to WSU, then as long as Butler and/or UWM finishes higher than WSU, we're #1. Likewise, if our one loss is to UWM, then as long as Butler and/or WSU finishes higher than UWM, we're #1. Sorry, i was assuming, and still am that Butler will finish 3rd. Fair enough  |
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Post by milanmiracle on Feb 12, 2011 22:56:49 GMT -5
Even with the win, this is not the big one. The only big one that Valpo is going to play is the first game in the Horizon League tournament. The next big one will be the game after that. I think you get the idea.
Winning the conference is nice, getting the number one seed is nice, but unless you're an at large team (Valpo's not), it's all about the Horizon League tournament. It does make it easier, but I wouldn't exactly say beating Wright State is the big one either.
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Post by stlvufan on Feb 12, 2011 22:59:16 GMT -5
Even with the win, this is not the big one. The only big one that Valpo is going to play is the first game in the Horizon League tournament. The next big one will be the game after that. I think you get the idea. Winning the conference is nice, getting the number one seed is nice, but unless you're an at large team (Valpo's not), it's all about the Horizon League tournament. It does make it easier, but I wouldn't exactly say beating Wright State is the big one either. Agreed - absolutely. |
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Post by jbowker on Feb 12, 2011 23:21:13 GMT -5
CSU's 4 losses: Butler, Butler, Valpo, Detroit
CSU Remaining Games: @ Wright State, Home to Green Bay and Milwaukee
Valpos 3 losses: Butler, CSU, Green Bay
Remaining: @ Milwaukee, @ Green Bay, Home to Loyola and UIC
Milwaukee's 5 losses: CSU, Wright State, Green Bay, Loyola and Valpo
Remaining: Home with Valpo, at Cleveland State and at Youngstown
Butler's 5 losses: Milwaukee, Milwaukee, Wright State, Valpo, Youngstown
Remaining: @ Green Bay, @ UIC, Home with Loyola
So, cool scenario: Valpo Beats UWM, Wright State beats CSU. Those games are both on Wednesday night.
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Post by 78crusader on Feb 12, 2011 23:29:07 GMT -5
I felt this game was the big one for a couple reasons. Lose, and all of a sudden we are in a position where we have to sweep our last league road trip against UMW and GB, which would be a very tough task. Throw in the Missouri State game in between and I just felt this win tonight takes a bit of the pressure off...we can maybe now split our road trip and still come out OK for the regular season title. The conference tournament is crucial, sure, but I like our chances of winning that thing a lot better if we are hosting it. Paul
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Post by blackpantheruwm on Feb 13, 2011 13:38:41 GMT -5
I'd say the regular season championship means something, since unless I'm mistaken it would be your first conference championship of any kind in the Horizon League.
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Post by vu72 on Feb 13, 2011 14:00:45 GMT -5
I'd say the regular season championship means something, since unless I'm mistaken it would be your first conference championship of any kind in the Horizon League. He is absolutely correct. Here are two other reasons it is very important: 1. It will help with recruiting. Kids who might have just thought about Butler, because they want to play for a championship program, now might consider Valpo, even if we lose in the tourney. 2. And I know this will not set well with the "NCAA or nothing" crowd, but, nonetheless, winning the regular season title will guarantee us an NIT bid. That's more tv exposure and still helps with recruiting. |
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Post by drewsaders11 on Feb 13, 2011 15:24:43 GMT -5
I strongly agree. We have not had a banner of any kind since joining the Horizon, although volleyball, soccer, and maybe softball if I am remembering correcting have all been close to either the regular season or tournament titles. This would be huge if the basketball team would be the ones to lead the way.
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