|
Post by a3uge on Mar 7, 2011 13:31:11 GMT -5
I wouldn't put too much weight in these links. The first one doesn't even have Cleveland St in it, and I'm sure they'd take a T-1st place team over Valpo.
|
|
|
Post by valpo84 on Mar 8, 2011 23:09:37 GMT -5
Oakland winning was helpful to the NIT chances, although the UWM loss balanced it out. We need the lower mid-majors to have their top seeds make the Dance.
|
|
|
Post by sanitylost17 on Mar 8, 2011 23:29:06 GMT -5
With a win tonight, it looks like Oakland is going to sneak into the top 50 in the RPI. That would make us 4-4 against the top 50 RPI. I am willing to bet there are very few teams looking for an NIT bid that have played at least 8 games against the top 50 and still have a .500 record. For example, Cleveland State is 0-5 in the same category. They may have a better record than us, but they also don't have any big wins. If we do get in, this statistic will be the deciding factor.
|
|
|
Post by vuweathernerd on Mar 9, 2011 0:18:09 GMT -5
while that is a valid point, sanity, i don't think that the hl has a shot at 3 nit teams. even as a higher level mid-major, i just don't see it happening. butler winning tonight may have helped all the rest of the ncaa's bcs bubble teams, our chances at the second tier tourney took a hit.
|
|
|
Post by stlvufan on Mar 9, 2011 1:05:15 GMT -5
Interesting. this has us solidly in as a 6 seed. It also has Milwaukee as the automatic bid, but as an 8 seed. CSU as a 2 seed (prior to tonight's game, but obviously they projected Butler as the winner of tonight's game). They have us taking on the Cal Bears, the Panthers taking on Washington State, and CSU hosting Drexel. As long as we're having pie-in-the-sky thoughts, how cool would it be for all 3 teams to make it to MSG?
|
|
|
Post by wh on Mar 9, 2011 1:28:58 GMT -5
Interesting. this has us solidly in as a 6 seed. It also has Milwaukee as the automatic bid, but as an 8 seed. CSU as a 2 seed (prior to tonight's game, but obviously they projected Butler as the winner of tonight's game). They have us taking on the Cal Bears, the Panthers taking on Washington State, and CSU hosting Drexel. As long as we're having pie-in-the-sky thoughts, how cool would it be for all 3 teams to make it to MSG? You missed a very juicy tidbit. According to the seedings, the Valpo/Cal winner would play the Baylor/NM winner...
|
|
|
Post by valpotx on Mar 9, 2011 1:29:25 GMT -5
Doesn't the NCAA own the NIT now? I would think that could actually help our chances as opposed to several years ago when it was just a separate tournament trying to maximize revenues by inviting .500 or sub-.500 big conference teams.
|
|
|
Post by valpo84 on Mar 9, 2011 1:36:41 GMT -5
TX--you're right about the NCAA owning the NIT, and that the tourney is on ESPN. Valpo's RPI is now sitting at 67 in one calculation and rising. That's about 30 spots above the "cut-off." Again the scenarios are in our favor as long as:
1. Upsets in the lower mid-majors do not occur so that the NIT auto bid rule doesn't come into effect. 2. The BCSers stay generally true to form with no bottom feeders winning their tourneys. 3. The A-10 sees X or Temple winning. Richmond is a bubble and would not hurt us.
ESPN has been a big supporter of ours and they have to be looking at that Baylor matchup on their mock boards. A Valpo-Michigan game also has good storylines. And a matchup with Illinois could help with our recruiting efforts with a win there. An NIT this year would be very helpful on many fronts and well deserved.
BTW, when was the last time we ended the season with this high an RPI.
|
|
|
Post by agibson on Mar 9, 2011 7:49:42 GMT -5
I know so little about NIT selection!
For the NCAA, conference affiliation isn't supposed to be a factor. e.g. there's no problem a priori with taking three or four horizon league teams. But, the NIT may well have more freedom to consider marketing concerns. Even if ESPN no longer has an official role in the selection (it's a committee of ex-coaches, I guess?).
Looking a bit at the archives: Number of NIT autobids per season: 2011 (someone mentioned as many as seven possibilities already?) 2010 8 2009 5 2008 8 2007 8 2006 (first season with automatic qualifiers, but I don't see a list)
Lowest RPI NIT team (non-AQ): 2010 Northwestern, Big Ten, RPI 115 2009 Nebraska, Big 12, RPI 111 2008 Minnesota, Big 10, RPI 108
Lowest (worst) RPI mid-major NIT team (non-AQ): 2010 Illinois State, MVC, RPI 76 (second MVC team in; the best RPI team to go elsewhere was Missouri State, RPI 77, to the CIT; six MVC teams total in the post-season) 2009 Niagara, MAAC, RPI 61 (depending, maybe, on whether you want to call A10, CUSA mid-major) 2008 Akron, MAC, RPI 70
Highest RPI CBI team: 2010 Virginia Commonwealth, CAA, RPI 46 (?! there must be a story about how Northeastern and William and Mary, lower RPI, lower win teams got into the NIT ahead of them; it's true VCC only finished T5 in conference) 2009 Green Bay, Horizon, RPI 81 (no Horizon League team in NIT) 2008 Houston, CUSA, RPI 64
Highest RPI CIT team: 2010 Marshall, CUSA, RPI 70 2009 Old Dominion, CAA, RPI 78 (first year of tournament)
(for RPI, I'm using Warren Nolan's report. These might include the result of post-season games.)
Not sure how best to catalog number of teams per conference. 2010's NIT included three C-USA teams. Two CAA. Two MVC. Lots of multiples from majors (e.g. five big east teams!) I notice in 2008 that that the MVC had three teams in the NIT, including RPI 60 Southern Illinois. (Pushing Bradley, RPI 96, to the CBI, where they lost two games to one against Tulsa in the finals.)
But, anyway, Valpo's not anything like an NIT lock with an RPI of 67. If they're left out, they'll probably be one of the best RPI teams excluded. Cleveland State might easily be a lock, with their RPI of 41. Milwaukee might easily need their auto-bid.
Surely it would be strange to have three Horizon League teams in the NIT, but it's been a strange season. We might well deserve it, and maybe the MVC in 2008 should give us some hope.
|
|
|
Post by indyvalpo on Mar 9, 2011 10:05:55 GMT -5
As of today our RPI is 70. If the NCAA uses RPI as a tool to exclude mid-majors from the Big Dance it seems oxymoronic that they would ignore it at the NIT level. There are not 30 teams below us that will qualify for the NCAA's or are guaranteed an NIT spot. We are in! Wait, I forgot, it is the NCAA!
Would you prefer a road NIT game or a home CBI game?
|
|
|
Post by crusadermoe on Mar 9, 2011 10:44:53 GMT -5
Road NIT. CBI would be a let down this year. Deserve a "real" tournament with our top 50 wins.
|
|
|
Post by vusupporter on Mar 9, 2011 10:57:43 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by stlvufan on Mar 9, 2011 12:28:27 GMT -5
With a win tonight, it looks like Oakland is going to sneak into the top 50 in the RPI. That would make us 4-4 against the top 50 RPI. I am willing to bet there are very few teams looking for an NIT bid that have played at least 8 games against the top 50 and still have a .500 record. For example, Cleveland State is 0-5 in the same category. They may have a better record than us, but they also don't have any big wins. If we do get in, this statistic will be the deciding factor. At this moment, Oakland is 52.
|
|
|
Post by sanitylost17 on Mar 9, 2011 19:54:55 GMT -5
Assuming there are 8 automatic bids for the NIT, that means the following 32 teams are fighting for 24 spots in the NIT. I have put the teams in order of their RPI and have listed their record against the top 50. (via rpiforecast.com) Obviously some of these teams will make the NCAA while others will fall off the bubble into this list, but they will be ahead of valpo, so that doesn't really matter. Memphis (2-3) Cleveland State (0-5) Colorado State (1-6) Princeton (1-3) VCU (3-5) Marshall (2-4) Southern Miss. (1-4) Penn St. (2-6) Witchita State (0-5) UTEP (1-2) Oklahoma State (3-5) California (2-9) UCF (1-4) Iona (0-2) Valpo (4-4) Washington State (2-6) New Mexico (3-5) USC (5-4) Minnesota (3-5) Miami FL. (3-6) Drexel (3-4) Tulsa (3-2) Ole Miss. (1-5) Alabama (3-3) Baylor (2-6) Dayton (1-5) Hofstra (1-5) Nebraska (3-6) JMU (2-6) Northwestern (1-6) Duquesne (1-4) Maryland (1-9) Only USC, Tulsa, and Alabama match us in top 50 wins. If they decided strictly by RPI we would be 15th. If you put all of the power six conference schools that are behind us into the field ahead of us we drop to 25th. This is likely because they will make more money, however I think we jump Iona because or our top 50 wins and are the last team in.
|
|
|
Post by wh on Mar 9, 2011 20:15:21 GMT -5
Assuming there are 8 automatic bids for the NIT, that means the following 32 teams are fighting for 24 spots in the NIT. I have put the teams in order of their RPI and have listed their record against the top 50. (via rpiforecast.com) Obviously some of these teams will make the NCAA while others will fall off the bubble into this list, but they will be ahead of valpo, so that doesn't really matter. Memphis (2-3) Cleveland State (0-5) Colorado State (1-6) Princeton (1-3) VCU (3-5) Marshall (2-4) Southern Miss. (1-4) Penn St. (2-6) Witchita State (0-5) UTEP (1-2) Oklahoma State (3-5) California (2-9) UCF (1-4) Iona (0-2) Valpo (4-4) Washington State (2-6) New Mexico (3-5) USC (5-4) Minnesota (3-5) Miami FL. (3-6) Drexel (3-4) Tulsa (3-2) Ole Miss. (1-5) Alabama (3-3) Baylor (2-6) Dayton (1-5) Hofstra (1-5) Nebraska (3-6) JMU (2-6) Northwestern (1-6) Duquesne (1-4) Maryland (1-9) Only USC, Tulsa, and Alabama match us in top 50 wins. If they decided strictly by RPI we would be 15th. If you put all of the power six conference schools that are behind us into the field ahead of us we drop to 25th. This is likely because they will make more money, however I think we jump Iona because or our top 50 wins and are the last team in. Nice job with this...interesting stuff.
|
|