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Post by dcvalpo on Feb 13, 2011 17:13:00 GMT -5
Let's say Homer leaves Buggs out of the game at the 1:13 mark. We play out a full possession and don't get a good shot. WSU ends up with the ball with :38 seconds to play and we can't stop the clock. Do you want Jay Harris guarding Evans or Buggs?
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Post by valposition on Feb 13, 2011 18:18:46 GMT -5
And the comments that he should not play D1 basketball because he is not a good shooter and that you can just bring up shooters from D2 and teach them defense.... I guess those comments speak for them self about your basketball knowledge.  Some people really need to work on their reading comprehension skills. Where did I ever say that I don't think Buggs should be playing D1? In fact, I said I really like him 90% of the game. What I DID say was that there are plenty of guys with the defense and intangibles that Buggs brings that are stuck in D2 because they never got an opportunity due to their size. Buggs was one of the few lucky people who get an opportunity to play D1 basketball at his size. I have personally played basketball with guys who were as fast as Buggs and way better shooters and I'm telling you that given the proper coaching they could be great defensive players while still maintaining the ability to shoot free throws. Also, my basketball knowledge is just fine, trust me. I was actually referring to Left Coast's comment: "Should a player who is only capable of making 33% of his free throws be playing Division 1 basketball? " and another comment that asked the question of "should Buggs should be in our lineup" in addition to yours. As far as the final minutes of a game, its not as one dimensional as some people are implying. Homer really has to balance a lot of variables: - Jay is a much better free throw shooter - Jay is a decent defender but buggs is a SHUTDOWN defender (in case they don't get a chance to sub in the transition to defense - which was just mentioned in the post before me) - Jay is a higher risk of a turnover (5 for the game - which is just a liability of his size and strength at this point. I am excited to see what a summer of living in the weight room does for him) - Buggs has the speed on offense to really go wherever he wants to create something - huge advantage, especially if the intended play they run is broken down by the defense - Are we in the bonus at that point in the game - How many fould does Buggs defender have - hopefully 4! - etc... Either way there is going to be a lot of shuffling of these two at the end and be dependent on the situation. If they do the "swat a bugg" approach you obviously need to react to it, but every game is going to be different. I just don't like the idea of completly avoiding playing Buggs at the end because you think they are going to foul him because there are so many other clutch things that he does. Also, my reading comprehension skills are just fine, trust me. ;D |
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Post by stlvufan on Feb 13, 2011 18:33:56 GMT -5
Buggs was put in at one point *for offense*. That was the original provocation for the criticism.
My only contribution to this discussion was intended to say that it was very questionable. I'm not willing to go so far as to say Homer screwed up.
Somebody pointed out a very plausible argument for why this move made sense. If the Jay Harris offense wasn't working, then that changes the situation.
Furthermore, all I would ever ask is that Homer do his best. If a VU player is on the FT line and you need defense, you better believe I support Homer putting Buggs in, even knowing that there might not be a play stoppage before possession changes. That's the risk you take, and you can't let that scare you from bolstering your defense when you get the chance.
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Post by valpofan56 on Feb 13, 2011 18:46:06 GMT -5
I have personally played basketball with guys who were as fast as Buggs and way better shooters and I'm telling you that given the proper coaching they could be great defensive players while still maintaining the ability to shoot free throws. Also, my basketball knowledge is just fine, trust me. If this is true, why isn't every coach in the country coaching their players to play defensive as good as Buggs does? To begin with, try the word "well" it's a very handy type of word known as an adverb. You can use it to modify verbs such as play. Moving on . . . There are a couple of answers to your question. 1. There are a lot of college basketball players that could play much better defense than they do if they really wanted. Playing D isn't anywhere near as glamorous as scoring. There are very few high scoring/flashy players out there that have the mindset to want to really work hard on defense. That's what makes them so special (see: Michael Jordan). 2. Buggs is a lot smaller and quicker than most players. This is a fact and what makes him a great defender. It's a lot easier for someone who is 5' 9" 170 lbs to get up close and play strong on the ball D than someone who is bigger. That still doesn't take away from my point that there are a lot of undersized guys playing in lower divisions that could play defense like Buggs. I'm not saying there are stockpiles of d2 guys that could play defense in d1 like Buggs and also score 15+ ppg. I just would like someone who could hit 70% of his FTs and knock down an occasional jump shot to keep the defense honest. All of this talk is silly anyway because you guys are making it seem like I hate Buggs or I don't think he has any right to be on the team. I love Buggs, I love the way he plays defense, I love that he takes much better care of the ball than he did as a freshman. I just don't want to see him anywhere near the court in situations like last night. |
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Post by lowposter on Feb 13, 2011 20:51:40 GMT -5
valpofan56...I can agree with that comment.
One other option which was used for one series was that Kenney, Wood, Little, Broekhauf, and Johnson was in the lineup. It wasnt a very pretty possession, if I recall.
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Post by a3uge on Feb 13, 2011 20:55:57 GMT -5
Let's say Homer leaves Buggs out of the game at the 1:13 mark. We play out a full possession and don't get a good shot. WSU ends up with the ball with :38 seconds to play and we can't stop the clock. Do you want Jay Harris guarding Evans or Buggs? This. |
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Post by drewsaders11 on Feb 13, 2011 20:56:47 GMT -5
valpofan56...would you have fouled buggs, knowing that your team is down by three with just over a minute left and just one made free throw makes it a two possession game? I know I wouldn't have, I would have trusted in my defense, not the failure of another player's failure. If he makes one, you would need to generate two baskets in a minute on top of banking on more missed free throws. I'm just curious as your views on the foul. Sorry for beating a dead horse.
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Post by valpofan56 on Feb 13, 2011 21:21:10 GMT -5
valpofan56...would you have fouled buggs, knowing that your team is down by three with just over a minute left and just one made free throw makes it a two possession game? I know I wouldn't have, I would have trusted in my defense, not the failure of another player's failure. If he makes one, you would need to generate two baskets in a minute on top of banking on more missed free throws. I'm just curious as your views on the foul. Sorry for beating a dead horse. Yes, I would absolutely foul Buggs. Here's why . . . Going purely off of statistics (not even taking into account the extra pressure on a terrible foul shooter knowing he needs to make one in the clutch) Buggs is never going to make both free throws. Half the time he will miss both and the other half he will hit 1 of 2. Let's say worst case scenario he hits 1. Keeping in mind there is still plenty of time left, if your team hits any shot on the other end, you're in a better position than you were before the foul and free throw. Then, if Homer leaves Buggs in (which he very well might if Buggs had hit one), you foul him again and statistically he will miss both. Now you have a 1 or 2 point game, the ball, and roughly 15 seconds to execute a play for the win. If Homer takes Buggs out, you deny Harris the ball like no other (I'm talking triple team) and take your chances with any other Valpo player (and let's face it, the way they have all shot free throws down the stretch, it's a good bet they miss at least one of them). Now you still have the ball with a 1, 2, or 3 point deficit and a chance for the win or OT. If the other Valpo player makes both FTs, you tip your hat to them and move on knowing you played the odds and it just didn't happen to work for you that time. |
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Post by stlvufan on Feb 13, 2011 21:36:06 GMT -5
valpofan56...would you have fouled buggs, knowing that your team is down by three with just over a minute left and just one made free throw makes it a two possession game? I know I wouldn't have, I would have trusted in my defense, not the failure of another player's failure. If he makes one, you would need to generate two baskets in a minute on top of banking on more missed free throws. I'm just curious as your views on the foul. Sorry for beating a dead horse. Yes, I would absolutely foul Buggs. Here's why . . . Going purely off of statistics (not even taking into account the extra pressure on a terrible foul shooter knowing he needs to make one in the clutch) Buggs is never going to make both free throws. One crunch time foul at the O'Rena notwithstanding. |
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Post by valpo84 on Feb 13, 2011 21:39:56 GMT -5
1. I agree you foul Buggs as often as you can if you are trailing late in the 2d half. Until he proves otherwise whether down 8, 4 or 2, it doesn't matter. If he misses one or both, you now can make up points and you continue to disrupt the Valpo offensive flow. Actually, and where Donlon made his mistakes, was not fouling Buggs about 3 mins left when we were still in the 1-and-1. That is when you can make the most hay from a poor free throw shooter. Back in the old days, 1980s before shot clocks and 3-pt shots, you had to start fouling much earlier. Yesterday was the time to do it and often.
2. I will add one point from a coaching perspective that hasn't been mentioned. College basketball is still a teaching and learning environment. If Buggs is to grow into the point guard we need at the end of games, he has to work through this. To us who count Ws and Ls, it's easy to be hypercritical of the decision to leave him in for most of the last 3 minutes. However, there was part of me saying, ok Eric, knock em down and that will stop this tactic. End of game situations are hard to duplicate in practices, and if he is to work through this, maybe (and it's speculation), Homer knows what he is doing and is trying to instill some confidence in Eric. Remember he is just a redshrit sophomore and we need him to be better at the line in game situations this year and for two more years.
And, by the way, Valpo still won, is in first place, and controls its own destiny for the
1 seed. Please enjoy this return to the top. There's some pretty good playing, coaching and recruiting going on.
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Post by a3uge on Feb 14, 2011 0:36:13 GMT -5
The way Valpo's defense played down the stretch (specifically Buggs), it would be a terrible idea to be down two possessions with 90 sec left. Lets take hindsight out of the equation and do some math:
Buggs is a career .400 free throw shooter, but this season he's a mere .342 (at the time).
He has a 0.658 chance of missing one shot. To get the odds of him missing both shots, square that number:
0.658*0.658=0.432964
To get the odds he makes at least one shot, subtract one:
1 - 0.432964 = 0.567036
This may be hard to understand, but given his poor free throw shooting, he actually has a higher probability to come away with points than Valpo's FG% of 52.6. So I'm going to defend Homer here, and call all of you victims of hindsight. Wright State didn't get a shot off (I could be wrong) in the final 90 seconds of the game. That defense is outstanding, and Buggs giving him the inside on that last attempt was crucial to take away the three pointer off of a short player. This point has been stated already, but if Buggs gets taken out, the offense probably ends up with a low percentage shot, much lower than the percentage of Buggs missing both free throws, and even if Valpo misses a shot, our shutdown defender is out of the game, and Wright State has the ball with the shot clock blank.
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Post by wh on Feb 14, 2011 1:27:47 GMT -5
The way Valpo's defense played down the stretch (specifically Buggs), it would be a terrible idea to be down two possessions with 90 sec left. Lets take hindsight out of the equation and do some math: Buggs is a career .400 free throw shooter, but this season he's a mere .342 (at the time). He has a 0.658 chance of missing one shot. To get the odds of him missing both shots, square that number: 0.658*0.658=0.432964 To get the odds he makes at least one shot, subtract one: 1 - 0.432964 = 0.567036 This may be hard to understand, but given his poor free throw shooting, he actually has a higher probability to come away with points than Valpo's FG% of 52.6. So I'm going to defend Homer here, and call all of you victims of hindsight. Wright State didn't get a shot off (I could be wrong) in the final 90 seconds of the game. That defense is outstanding, and Buggs giving him the inside on that last attempt was crucial to take away the three pointer off of a short player. This point has been stated already, but if Buggs gets taken out, the offense probably ends up with a low percentage shot, much lower than the percentage of Buggs missing both free throws, and even if Valpo misses a shot, our shutdown defender is out of the game, and Wright State has the ball with the shot clock blank. You may want to revisit your premise. Buggs has a 57% chance of making 1 point, not 2. The team has a 52% chance of making 2+ points (including 3-pt FG's). Further, he is shooting 21% over the past 4 games, not 34% |
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Post by drewsaders11 on Feb 14, 2011 1:45:38 GMT -5
The way Valpo's defense played down the stretch (specifically Buggs), it would be a terrible idea to be down two possessions with 90 sec left. Lets take hindsight out of the equation and do some math: Buggs is a career .400 free throw shooter, but this season he's a mere .342 (at the time). He has a 0.658 chance of missing one shot. To get the odds of him missing both shots, square that number: 0.658*0.658=0.432964 To get the odds he makes at least one shot, subtract one: 1 - 0.432964 = 0.567036 This may be hard to understand, but given his poor free throw shooting, he actually has a higher probability to come away with points than Valpo's FG% of 52.6. So I'm going to defend Homer here, and call all of you victims of hindsight. Wright State didn't get a shot off (I could be wrong) in the final 90 seconds of the game. That defense is outstanding, and Buggs giving him the inside on that last attempt was crucial to take away the three pointer off of a short player. This point has been stated already, but if Buggs gets taken out, the offense probably ends up with a low percentage shot, much lower than the percentage of Buggs missing both free throws, and even if Valpo misses a shot, our shutdown defender is out of the game, and Wright State has the ball with the shot clock blank. You may want to revisit your premise. Buggs has a 57% chance of making 1 point, not 2. The team has a 52% chance of making 2+ points (including 3-pt FG's). Further, he is shooting 21% over the past 4 games, not 34% As I have said before...one point or two, it is still two possessions. Thus, if Buggs makes one free throw, which was nicely shown is more probable over the course of the season than a shot going in, especially against Wright St.'s defense, then it is a two possession game. |
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Post by drewsaders11 on Feb 14, 2011 1:48:05 GMT -5
Also, the last four games probably isn't a good sample size statistically speaking (it may carry more basketball weight, but not pure mathematically). Also, being nit-picky about the word points/point is pretty ridiculous.
I am done with the topic of the Buggs foul, and his FT shooting, etc.
Lets go get Milwaukee Wednesday.
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Post by a3uge on Feb 14, 2011 2:02:21 GMT -5
The way Valpo's defense played down the stretch (specifically Buggs), it would be a terrible idea to be down two possessions with 90 sec left. Lets take hindsight out of the equation and do some math: Buggs is a career .400 free throw shooter, but this season he's a mere .342 (at the time). He has a 0.658 chance of missing one shot. To get the odds of him missing both shots, square that number: 0.658*0.658=0.432964 To get the odds he makes at least one shot, subtract one: 1 - 0.432964 = 0.567036 This may be hard to understand, but given his poor free throw shooting, he actually has a higher probability to come away with points than Valpo's FG% of 52.6. So I'm going to defend Homer here, and call all of you victims of hindsight. Wright State didn't get a shot off (I could be wrong) in the final 90 seconds of the game. That defense is outstanding, and Buggs giving him the inside on that last attempt was crucial to take away the three pointer off of a short player. This point has been stated already, but if Buggs gets taken out, the offense probably ends up with a low percentage shot, much lower than the percentage of Buggs missing both free throws, and even if Valpo misses a shot, our shutdown defender is out of the game, and Wright State has the ball with the shot clock blank. You may want to revisit your premise. Buggs has a 57% chance of making 1 point, not 2. The team has a 52% chance of making 2+ points (including 3-pt FG's). Further, he is shooting 21% over the past 4 games, not 34% Wow this is frustrating. I apply sound statistics to argue a point and you come back with a free-throw percentage that is in no way statistically significant to prove anything. A sample size of 12 is unacceptable to come away with a percentage that indicates how well a free-throw shooter is. The difference between between a one possession game and two possession game is phenomenal. The difference between 4 and 5 points isn't nearly as important. Especially when they did not even get a shot off in the last 90 seconds of the game. A two possession game, and you're climbing an uphill battle, especially when the shot clock is expired and you NEED to go into foul mode, allowing Buggs to easily be subbed in offensively and defensively. |
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