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Post by valpofan56 on Dec 30, 2010 19:31:32 GMT -5
Well, probably the hardest game left on the schedule, especially given the way Butler has played of late. We've got three potentially good things going for us for this game.
1. Butler's students are on break
2. As hot as Butler has been lately, we've been pretty hot too.
3. They may come out a little flat after having not played for a week.
Given that, if Valpo is going to win this game, they need to jump out and grab the lead right away and build some momentum as the game goes on. Turnovers will be huge, Butler doesn't really make them so we will need to limit ours. If we continue to play good defense like we have been, cut the stupid mistakes, and knock down at least 75% of our FTs, we will be in this game until the end with a chance to steal a road win.
Also, anybody in the Indy area should consider inviting a few of the Butler players over for a big New Year's Eve bash. Make sure the champagne is flowing . . . it couldn't hurt.
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Post by bbtds on Dec 30, 2010 21:27:08 GMT -5
1. Butler's students are on break Also, anybody in the Indy area should consider inviting a few of the Butler players over for a big New Year's Eve bash. Make sure the champagne is flowing . . . it couldn't hurt. Butler will have over 7,000 at this game and probably more. The season ticket holders now have way over 50% of the seats in the lower level. The only available seats for anyone wanting more than a single ticket is in the upper level. I don't think it matters that much whether the Butler students attend the game but many of them will attend the game anyway just because they are fans of the team. This isn't your typical HL program. I invited Matt Howard and Shelvin Mack over to the house for a New Years Eve party but was turned down. Coach Stevens and Associate Head Coach Matt Graves said they were thinking about coming. Andrew Smith from Covenant Christian has some classmates from high school in the neighborhood and said he might stop by on his way to another party. :-) |
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Post by valpofan56 on Dec 30, 2010 21:31:23 GMT -5
I invited Matt Howard and Shelvin Mack over to the house for a New Years Eve party but was turned down. Coach Stevens and Associate Head Coach Matt Graves said they were thinking about coming. Andrew Smith from Covenant Christian has some classmates from high school in the neighborhood and said he might stop by on his way to another party. :-) Shoot, those were the two we really need to be hungover come Saturday.  |
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Post by okinawatyphoon on Dec 30, 2010 23:38:41 GMT -5
This game will tell us pretty much everything, in my opinion. If we win, I think we have something special. If we lose (probably just by a point or two like usual), it will be the same old Crusaders who will finish in the middle of the pack. I think a win over Butler would get more fans to go the games, since we would finally be able to say that we have beat our "rival." Can we get over this hump?
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Post by vuweathernerd on Dec 31, 2010 0:41:41 GMT -5
my biggest problem with this game is that it's going to be at hinkle. in their building, i'm skeptical at best about our chances. it will likely be an entertaining game-they always are, regardless of venue, but our play on the road is not particularly stellar. 3 of our 4 losses came away from the arc. butler by 9 in a defensive battle. low scoring game-neither team breaks 70.
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Post by valpo84 on Dec 31, 2010 8:41:41 GMT -5
Couple of interesting points. This a road game against a team that did not lose at home last year. Valpo had the most points (69) against Butler from Dec 12 (Ohio State) through the championship game. So, if Valpo can get to 70 this will be a ball game. Butler's last conference losses at home were Loyola in regular season and Cleve State in Horizon Championship in 2009. The clunker against E'Ville this year shows some hope that someone can beat them at home. We are positioned well for this game. Turnovers have to be kept under check (less than 14), rebounding needs to be even or better, and we must shoot 40% or better from 3, and FT attempts must be near even (and not just final stats but at halftime and at 8 min mark of game). Still not sure we can pull "upset" at Hinkle, but a close (last possession) loss would show this team is better and set up the rematch at ARC, presuming we move on after the loss and take care of conference business. A split this year is important and a 3d game in the tourney then makes it up for grabs. Not saying I don't want the road win, but looking at what Butler has done of late, shows a really good club who will be ready for a conference tilt at Hinkle -- New Year's Day or not.
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Post by irishdawg on Dec 31, 2010 9:23:51 GMT -5
If the students are on break, don't expect much from the student section, Butler is usually pretty good at keeping them away, a la Evansville earlier this season. Attendance might be pretty good anyway, but the students are usually the ones who get the fans going unfortunately.
I have a feeling it'll be a lot closer than many outsiders may think, especially after the Bulldog's romp through Hawaii.
The real key for Butler is going to be the interior matchups. If Valpo does go man to man, I have to believe Broekhoff will have some difficulty matching up with Howard (at least on the interior) since Johnson will likely be on Smith. On the other side, if Johnson can knock down some early 3's, Butler could be in trouble, as well as if Howard doesn't have the footspeed to keep up with Broekhoff. If that does happen though, I would suspect Stevens would put Howard at the 5 and bring in Marshall, but we'll see.
Officiating will also be key. I just hope it's not a 40 FT per team foul fest as I've sometimes grown accustomed to in HL play, even if Butler is the one shooting all the FT's, it just makes for a lousy basketball game.
In any case, I think this Valparaiso team is better defensively since last season, though not consistently against "good" opponents yet (overall I believe they are better). I'm expecting a good game, and of course another good one January 29th at the ARC.
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Post by wh on Dec 31, 2010 10:36:40 GMT -5
If the students are on break, don't expect much from the student section, Butler is usually pretty good at keeping them away, a la Evansville earlier this season. Attendance might be pretty good anyway, but the students are usually the ones who get the fans going unfortunately. I have a feeling it'll be a lot closer than many outsiders may think, especially after the Bulldog's romp through Hawaii. The real key for Butler is going to be the interior matchups. If Valpo does go man to man, I have to believe Broekhoff will have some difficulty matching up with Howard (at least on the interior) since Johnson will likely be on Smith. On the other side, if Johnson can knock down some early 3's, Butler could be in trouble, as well as if Howard doesn't have the footspeed to keep up with Broekhoff. If that does happen though, I would suspect Stevens would put Howard at the 5 and bring in Marshall, but we'll see. Officiating will also be key. I just hope it's not a 40 FT per team foul fest as I've sometimes grown accustomed to in HL play, even if Butler is the one shooting all the FT's, it just makes for a lousy basketball game. In any case, I think this Valparaiso team is better defensively since last season, though not consistently against "good" opponents yet (overall I believe they are better). I'm expecting a good game, and of course another good one January 29th at the ARC. Good keys to the game. Spot on that Smith and Howard together is a huge matchup problem for us. My guess is that we will play mostly zone, double down on your bigs, and hopefully force you to beat us from the outside. Another problem will be keeping Smith and Howard off the offensive glass, always a big challenge for us as an undersized team. On a lighter note, how is it that you're irishdawg? Degrees from both schools? Butler alum living in South Bend? ND alum from Indy? Just curious... |
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Post by vu72 on Dec 31, 2010 11:13:36 GMT -5
The improvement in Smith really is the big problem for us. He showed a lot in the recent tourney and that allows Howard to move to the 4. I have consistently said that Matt wasn't as good as Cory LAST YEAR, but Matt has added the 3 point shot which makes him probably better than Cory so far this year. The other big improvement from Butler is the play of Stigall. He is a deadly 3 pt shot. Add it all together, at Hinkle, and we will have a real problem winning this game. Oh, and that Mack guy is pretty good also  We will need a big game from Brandon and Rowdy to go with Cory battling down inside. I'm hoping that this time off has gotten everyone healthy. We will need all the bodys going into Horizon play. |
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Post by zvillehaze on Dec 31, 2010 11:36:14 GMT -5
Agree with 72, although as irishdawg pointed out, how Butler's big lineup defends Valpo's four guard lineup will also be a big factor. A fun game-within-the-game will be watching the Nored-Wood matchup. Wood wasn't a factor in either game last year ... I think that needs to change if Valpo is going to win Saturday.
This will be a good measuring stick for both teams. A Valpo win would be huge, but a loss wouldn't be the end of the world ... especially since they've already got two road wins in their pocket and will get Butler in the ARC in a few weeks.
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Post by valporun on Dec 31, 2010 11:59:39 GMT -5
If Stigall keeps up his 3-point attack, he'll become the next Pete Campbell. A clutch 3-point shooter when the clock is running out. Howard may have always had a 3pt. shot, but Stevens limited how often he could shoot it? I mean with Hayward, Campbell, and other better 3-pt. shooters around, Howard's ability to shoot from the arc wouldn't have fit his role in "The Butler Way".
Some of the matchups will be interesting, and could be really scary, if we don't have answers to what Butler does.
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Post by wh on Dec 31, 2010 13:24:10 GMT -5
Several times in last year's game at the ARC, Butler ran a second defender at BW as soon as he received the ball on the wing. It really took him out of the game offensively. We've done a lot since then to counter that type of thing, like posting him up, giving him the ball directly out front with high picks, using multiple screens, and working the back door when teams overplay out front. Ball State doubled on him a lot in the 2nd half (after a 16 pt. first half) and really neutralized him. At the same time, we got a lot of easy baskets from other players. The key is hopefully making them pay one way or the other.
Related thought: Butler is one of the only teams we play that hedges. In the Classic they just won, I noticed several times they left opposing team bigs wide open but the other team couldn't take advantage. As mobile as Cory is, I hope we can get 3 or 4 easy baskets from that.
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Post by lowposter on Dec 31, 2010 16:01:23 GMT -5
Should be a great game...what a NYD treat, and it is on local Lakeshore TV.
lowposter
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Post by valpo84 on Jan 1, 2011 6:43:14 GMT -5
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Post by jj on Jan 1, 2011 9:31:46 GMT -5
Butler is favored by 12. Hopefully we can keep the spread under 10.
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